The View from the Front Desk: Navigating BC’s Record-Breaking Hospitality Boom Amid Trump’s 100% Tariff Threats

If you’ve walked through the lobby of any major BC hotel this past year, you’ve likely felt it—the energy of a sector running at full capacity, quite literally. As hospitality consultants working with operators from Vancouver Island to the Okanagan, we’ve spent 2025 advising clients on how to manage too much demand rather than too little. But as we look toward 2026, the industry finds itself in a paradoxical position: experiencing the strongest fundamentals in history while facing geopolitical headwinds that threaten to destabilize the very trade relationships that underpin our prosperity.

Let me share what Steps Hospitality is seeing in the data—and what Trump’s recent threat of 100% tariffs means for your property’s five-year forecasting model.

The "Elbows Up" Bonanza: By The Numbers

First, the good news. If 2024 was a recovery year, 2025 was a renaissance. According to full-year CoStar data, British Columbia didn’t just lead Canada—we lapped the field. The province reported the highest absolute levels nationwide across every metric that matters:

• Occupancy: 70.4%

• Average Daily Rate: CAD$257.03

• RevPAR: CAD$180.92

• 
  

To put this in context, Vancouver’s RevPAR of CAD$223.05 (driven by 78.4% occupancy and rates pushing $284) outperformed many global gateway cities . Victoria, meanwhile, just enjoyed its strongest summer in a decade, posting August occupancy of 94.3% with average rates exceeding $396 .

We’re seeing this boom manifest across asset classes. Independent operators in Tofino are yielding higher than some downtown Vancouver full-service properties. The Okanagan is experiencing sustained compression from Albertans and Lower Mainland residents who’ve redirected their leisure spend away from Arizona and Nevada .

The driver? The mass redirection of Canadian travel dollars away from the United States. With cross-border trips down 28% in 2025 (car travel down 34%), and the weak loonie making domestic stays economically rational as well as patriotic, BC hotels became the accidental beneficiaries of the "elbows up" movement .

The Trump Variable: 100% Tariffs and Regulatory Uncertainty

But as we advise our clients: never mistake a demand surge for structural health. And January 2026 has brought a sobering reality check.

On January 24, President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on all Canadian goods if Prime Minister Mark Carney proceeds with finalized trade agreements with China . The specific trigger appears to be Canada’s recent negotiations to allow nearly 50,000 Chinese EVs into our market at reduced tariff rates (6.1%) in exchange for China removing retaliatory tariffs on Canadian seafood and agricultural products .

What does this mean for hoteliers? In the immediate term, it introduces severe uncertainty into corporate travel budgets and international event planning. When President Trump posts on Truth Social that "Canada is systematically destroying itself" and threatens to "devour" our economy , the resulting media coverage doesn’t just affect trade—it affects tourism sentiment.

For BC specifically, the threat is acute. Our province’s hospitality sector is deeply integrated with Pacific Rim trade flows. A 100% tariff scenario would trigger immediate recessionary pressures in Vancouver’s commercial real estate sector, directly impacting corporate transient demand from the very industries (resource extraction, logistics, import/export) that fill our weekday room nights.

More concerning is the USMCA review scheduled for later this year. Trump has already signaled that the agreement "expires very shortly and we could have it or not" . For hotels in border markets like White Rock and Abbotsford, the elimination of tariff-free cross-border commerce would be catastrophic for ancillary spend.

The Snowbird Shift: Long-Stay Market Disruption

While the leisure transient segment has boomed, we’re tracking a concerning structural shift in the extended-stay and snowbird markets that many BC hoteliers depend on during shoulder seasons.

The data is stark: while 70% of Canadian snowbirds still traveled to the U.S. this winter, that represents a 12% decline year-over-year . More significantly, the cohort seeking non-U.S. destinations nearly doubled from 12% to 23%, with Mexico, Portugal, Spain, Costa Rica, and Thailand emerging as preferred alternatives .

But here’s the metric that should concern every resort operator planning 2026-2027: Royal LePage reports that 54% of Canadian-owned U.S. vacation properties will be sold within the next year, with 35% of owners citing "concerns about the current U.S. political administration" as the primary motivation .

This represents a secular shift, not a cyclical dip. The Canadian snowbird market—historically a predictable source of winter occupancy for Arizona and Florida properties—is undergoing rapid diversification. For BC operators, this creates both opportunity (longer domestic shoulder seasons) and risk (if those properties aren’t replaced by alternative inventory, we lose the traditional "exchange rate" of Canadian visitors returning north for summer).

We’re already seeing this manifest in booking patterns. Hotels in Puerto Vallarta and Lisbon are reporting unprecedented Canadian inquiry volumes, while traditional snowbird enclaves in Florida face 60% cancellation rates among Canadian repeat guests . This capital flight from U.S. vacation real estate won’t reverse quickly, regardless of future political outcomes.

The 2026 Prognosis: Compression vs. Uncertainty

So where does this leave BC hoteliers for 2026? Steps Hospitality’s outlook is cautiously optimistic but heavily hedged.

The Bull Case: BC’s supply constraints mean we can maintain pricing power even if demand softens. Victoria has lost approximately 2,000 rooms over the past decade, predominantly in the economy bracket . This capacity shortage creates a natural floor under ADR. We also remain the primary beneficiary of domestic "revenge travel" redirection, with the Tourism Industry Association of Canada reporting that 68% of Canadians now prefer domestic or international (non-U.S.) destinations for 2026 planning.

The Bear Case: Trump’s 100% tariff threat, if enacted, would trigger immediate economic contraction. A trade war of that magnitude would crush business travel, delay corporate expansion (and thus hotel development), and potentially trigger capital flight from Canadian real estate. When combined with aggressive interest rate environments and construction cost inflation (materials up 5-10% due to existing tariffs) , new supply will remain constrained—but so will liquidity for acquisitions.

The Base Case (Steps Hospitality Forecast): We anticipate BC hotel RevPAR to remain flat to slightly positive (+2%) in 2026, but with significant market bifurcation. Vancouver and Victoria will maintain compression due to supply constraints, while secondary markets dependent on cross-border traffic (Niagara equivalents in BC) will see occupancy erosion.

Strategic Recommendations for Operators

Given this volatility, we’re advising our clients to pursue three strategic priorities:

1. Diversify Your Base

If your property relies heavily on corporate transient tied to cross-border trade industries, begin immediate outreach to domestic tech, film, and clean energy sectors. The tariff uncertainty makes existing corporate contracts vulnerable to RFP renegotiation.

2. Capture the "Reluctant Patriot"

The snowbird data suggests Canadians are seeking long-horizon alternatives to U.S. winters. Properties with extended-stay capabilities should market aggressively to this cohort, positioning BC as the "anti-Florida"—stable, welcoming, and economically rational given current exchange rates.

3. Protect Your Shoulders

With snowbird patterns shifting, the traditional February-April dip may deepen. Implement dynamic minimum-stay requirements during peak periods to maximize yield, while offering aggressive packages during the shoulders to capture the new class of international-bound Canadians testing "close to home" alternatives.

4. Watch the USMCA Review

The coming USMCA renegotiation will determine whether Trump’s 100% threat is performative or substantive. If economic security provisions are added that subordinate Canadian trade policy , expect sustained volatility in business travel confidence.

Final Thoughts

BC’s hotel industry is currently experiencing what we at Steps call "the prosperous paradox"—our numbers have never looked better, yet the foundations have rarely felt more uncertain. The 2025 RevPAR records are real, the cash flow is robust, and the patriotism premium continues to drive domestic demand. But as consultants, we must look past the current operating statement to the five-year hold period.

Trump’s January 2026 threat of 100% tariffs represents more than trade policy—it’s a direct challenge to the economic stability that allows travel and hospitality to flourish. Combined with the structural shift of Canadian snowbird capital flowing to Portugal and Mexico rather than Florida, we’re looking at a permanent realignment of travel patterns.

For BC hoteliers, the imperative is clear: maximize the current windfall while building operational resilience for a trade environment that may become significantly more hostile. The "elbows up" movement gave us 2025’s record performance. The question for 2026 is whether we can maintain that momentum when the elbows turn to protectionist walls.

Jared Sissons is President of Steps Hospitality Consultants, an Okanagan-based advisory firm specializing in asset management, feasibility analysis, and strategic planning for hotels and resort properties across Western Canada.